SUN DAY CAMPAIGN
(founded 1992)
8606 Greenwood Avenue, Suite #2; Takoma Park, MD 20912-6656
HIGHLIGHTS FROM EIA'S LATEST
"SHORT-TERM ENERGY OUTLOOK"
(released December 9, 2025)
Notable Quote: “In the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), the fastest growing energy source is solar, which we forecast will grow by 92% between 2024 and 2026.”
EIA - Electricity/General: “Between 2010 and 2020, U.S. electricity generation fell by an average of 0.3% per year. Since 2021, electricity generation has grown about 2% per year. … Forecast U.S. electricity generation by the power sector grows by 2.4% in 2025 and by 1.7% in 2026. This growth is … primarily driven by increasing demand from large customers, including data centers, concentrated in regions managed by ERCOT and the PJM Interconnection.”
EIA - Renewables: In 2025, wind is forecast to provide about 10.76% of U.S. electricity generation, followed by solar (6.86%), and hydro (5.66%). In 2024, renewable energy sources (including biomass and geothermal) provided 22.52% of U.S. electricity generation. That is forecast to increase to 23.88% in 2025 and then to 25.38% in 2026. [see Figure 30 below] (Ed. Note: This is interpreted to mean utility-scale generation and not include distributed solar.)
EIA - Solar: “We expect most of the growing electricity demand in the PJM region will be met by growing generation from solar, up 63%, and coal, between 2024 and 2026.”
In 2025, solar-generated electricity is projected to increase by 33.33% over its 2024 level and then by an additional 18.49% in 2026. [see Figure 30 below] (Ed. Note: This is interpreted to mean utility-scale generation and not include distributed solar.)
EIA - Wind: In 2025, wind-generated electricity is projected to increase by 1.33% over its 2024 level and then by an additional 5.68% in 2026. [see Figure 30 below]
EIA - Hydropower: In 2025, hydro-generated electricity is projected to remain essentially unchanged from its 2024 level but then grow by 7.88% in 2026. [see Figure 30 below]
EIA - Battery Storage: Between 2020 and 2024, battery storage capacity increased from 2-GW to 27-GW. In 2025, it is projected to expand to 46-GW and to reach 66-GW in 2026. However, pumped hydro storage is forecast to remain steady at 23-GW. [see Figure 30]
EIA - Biofuels: Total domestic biofuels production will fall from 1.396 million barrels per day (mb/d) in 2024 to 1.378 mb/d in 2025 but rebound to 1.471 mb/d in 2026. Fuel ethanol will grow from 1.056 mb/d in 2024 to 1.067 mb/d in 2025 and to 1.075 mb/d in 2026. Renewable diesel will drop from 0.208 mb/d in 2024 to 0.195 mb/d in 2025 and then increase to 0.260 mb/d in 2026. Biodiesel will fall from 0.109 mb/d in 2024 to 0.078 in 2025 and then rebound a bit to 0.096 in 2026. “Other” biofuels (e.g., sustainable aviation fuel) will expand from 0.023 mb/d in 2024 to 0.038 mb/d in 2025 and then to 0.040 mb/d in 2026 [see Figure 13 and Table 4d in full report]
2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
U.S. solar capacity 61,009 72,248 91,648 123,000 148,000 181,000
(megawatts)
U.S. wind capacity 132,629 141,275 147,600 152,000 159,000 170,000
(megawatts)
SUN DAY Campaign - editorial note: EIA’s latest STEO confirms the SUN DAY Campaign’s consistent forecast of the past three years: utility-scale solar capacity should surpass that of wind at some point (probably mid-year) in 2026. That does not include additional solar capacity provided by small-scale (e.g., rooftop) systems, which EIA says now totals 57.5-GW as of September 30, 2025 [see Table 6.1 in “Electric Power Monthly”].
U.S. Renewable Energy Supply [Figure 35]
(Quadrillion Btu)
Energy Source 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
Liquid biofuels 2.331 2.433 2.659 2.803 2.581 2.753
Wood biomass 1.989 2.029 1.969 1.920 1.936 2.047
Waste biomass 0.430 0.412 0.394 0.387 0.374 0.373
Wind power 1.289 1.481 1.436 1.541 1.562 1.652
Solar 0.627 0.764 0.878 1.100 1.380 1.602
Hydropower 0.858 0.869 0.836 0.829 0.830 0.889
Geothermal 0.118 0.118 0.119 0.116 0.118 0.118
EIA - Nuclear Power: Nuclear power is projected to decline from an 18.84% share of U.S. electricity generation in 2024 to 18.35% in 2025 and dip a bit further to 18.26% in 2026. [see Figure 30]
EIA - Natural Gas: “The largest source in [the ERCOT and PJM] regions is natural gas, which we forecast will grow by 2% in both regions between 2024 and 2026.”
Natural gas’ share of electrical generation will fall from 42.54% in 2024 to 40.12% in 2025 and then fall further to 39.02% in 2026. [see Figure 30 below]
EIA - Petroleum: “Strong global oil production growth has outpaced consumption in recent months, driving our assessment that global oil inventories have risen quickly in the second half of 2025. In 2026, we expect production and consumption to grow at similar rates, but production levels will continue to exceed consumption, further adding to inventories.”
EIA - Coal: “We expect coal consumption to total 448 million short tons (MMst) in 2025, a 9% increase compared with 2024. The increase is mostly driven by an 11% increase in coal consumption in the electric power sector this year in electric power consumption in the U.S. - which accounts for approximately 90% of total coal consumption - as both natural gas costs and electricity demand increased.
“Coal consumption is expected to fall in 2026 as electric power generation from renewable sources increases. However, coal production falls by less than consumption next year, supporting a small increase in coal exports and rising coal inventories.
“We expect most of the growing electricity demand in the PJM region will be met by growing generation from coal - up 23% - and solar … between 2024 and 2026.”
*Coal’s share of utility-scale electrical generation will drop from 28.40% in 2018 to 17.04% in 2025 and decrease further to 15.56% in 2026. [see Figure 30 below]
Electricity Generation - All Sectors [Figure 30]
(billion kilowatt-hours)
Year Gas Coal Nuclear Hydro Wind Solar Other Total RE-%
2020 1.522 0.768 0.790 0.284 0.337 0.089 0.027 3.854 19.12%
2021 1.477 0.892 0.780 0.250 0.378 0.115 0.029 3.958 19.50%
2022 1.583 0.826 0.772 0.254 0.434 0.143 0.030 4.074 21.13%
2023 1.700 0.671 0.775 0.244 0.421 0.165 0.023 4.029 21.17%
2024 1.766 0.648 0.782 0.242 0.452 0.219 0.022 4.151 22.52%
2025 1.707 0.725 0.781 0.241 0.458 0.292 0.025 4.255 23.88%
2026 1.710 0.682 0.800 0.260 0.484 0.346 0.022 4.382 25.38%
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CO2 Emissions:
EIA - CO2 Emissions: “We forecast U.S. energy-related CO2 emissions to increase by 1.9% in 2025, followed by a decrease of 1.2% in 2026. This is a change from our November forecast, when we forecast CO2 emissions to decrease by 0.5% in 2026. The lower 2026 emissions estimate in the current forecast is a result of relatively lower anticipated natural gas-fired electricity generation next year.
“Our current CO2 emissions forecast for 2025 and 2026 is slightly higher than our initial January 2025 estimates. We expect total CO2 emissions in 2025 and 2026 to be 1.9% and 0.9% higher, respectively, than our January 2025 outlook because coal-fired electricity generation was higher than we expected due to additional electricity demand and natural gas prices. We also now forecast CO2 emissions from natural gas to be higher in both 2025 and 2026 compared with our January forecast.
“Emissions increases in 2026 are associated with relatively higher natural gas-fired electricity generation, associated with rising electricity demand for data centers and cryptocurrency mining.”
Annual CO2 Emissions [Figure 40]
(million metric tons)
Energy Source 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
Coal 876 1003 938 776 750 809 778
Petroleum 2044 2235 2251 2251 2243 2256 2244
Natural Gas 1653 1656 1748 1764 1790 1810 1794
Total Energy 4584 4906 4945 4799 4792 4883 4823
