SUN DAY Campaign: Highlights of EIA's Latest "Short-Term Energy Outlook" (November 10, 2026)
SUN DAY CAMPAIGN
(founded 1992)
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8606 Greenwood Avenue, Suite #2; Takoma Park, MD 20912-6656
301-588-4741; sun-day-
follow on Blue Sky at: @sun-day-campaign.bsky.social
HIGHLIGHTS FROM EIA'S LATEST
"SHORT-TERM ENERGY OUTLOOK"
(released November 10, 2026)
Notable Quote: “Rising U.S. electricity generation [in 2026 and 2027] is met primarily by increasing generation from renewable energy sources.”
EIA - Electricity/General: “EIA expects U.S. electric power sector generation to reach a record of almost 4,390 billion kilowatt-hours in 2026, up 2.7% from 2025 …. driven by rising demand from the commercial sector and increased cooling needs from warmer-than-average summer temperatures. We expect electricity generation growth will slow to 1.2% in 2027, with forecast milder weather reducing residential demand.”
EIA - Renewables: In 2026, wind is forecast to provide about 11.28% of U.S. electricity generation, followed by solar (8.14%), and hydro (5.68%). In 2024, renewable energy sources (including biomass and geothermal) provided 22.49% of U.S. electricity generation. That grew to 23.97% in 2025. It is forecast to increase to 25.74% in 2026 and then increase further to 27.56% in 2027.[see Figure 30 below] (Ed. Note: This is interpreted to mean utility-scale generation and not include distributed solar which could add another 2% or more to the totals.)
EIA - Solar: “EIA expects most generation growth over the forecast period to come from utility-scale solar as capacity increases. … We expect the share of total U.S. generation supplied by utility-scale solar plants will rise from 7% in 2025 to 8% in 2026 and nearly 10% in 2027. … Solar … generation [is] rising as a result of an expected 72 gigawatts … of new capacity coming online this year and next.”
Electrical generation by utility-scale solar in 2025 increased by 36.07% over that produced in 2024. It is forecast to increase by another 19.80% in 2026 and then increase in 2027 by 19.33% over this year’s output. [see Figure 30 below]
EIA - Wind: “The forecast share of generation from wind rises from 11% in 2025 to 12% by 2027. [W]ind generation [is] rising as a result of an expected … 20 gigawatts … of new capacity coming online this year and next.”
Electrical generation by wind in 2025 increased by 1.99% over that produced in 2024. It is forecast to increase by another 7.38% in 2026 and then increase in 2027 by 5.25% over this year’s output. [see Figure 30 below]
EIA - Hydropower: Electrical generation by hydropower in 2025 decreased by 0.83% compared to that produced in 2024. However, it is forecast to increase by 3.75% in 2026 and then increase by another 1.20% in 2027. [see Figure 30 below]
EIA - Battery Storage: Between 2020 and 2024, battery storage capacity increased from 2-GW to 27-GW. In 2025, it expanded to 43-GW and is expected to reach 66-GW in 2026 and 92-GW in 2027. However, pumped hydro storage is forecast to remain steady at 23-GW in 2026 and increase just slightly to 24-GW in 2027. [see Figure 30]
EIA - Biofuels: Total domestic biofuels production fell from 1.395 million barrels per day (mb/d) in 2024 to 1.385 mb/d in 2025 but is projected to rebound to 1.471 mb/d in 2026 and increase further to 1.556 mb/d in 2027. Fuel ethanol grew from 1.056 mb/d in 2024 to 1.077 mb/d in 2025 and will grow further to 1.101 mb/d in 2026 and then to 1.122 mb/d in 2027. Renewable diesel dropped from 0.208 mb/d in 2024 to 0.192 mb/d in 2025 but is expected to increase to 0.230 mb/d in 2026 and to 0.275 mb/d in 2027. Biodiesel fell from 0.109 mb/d in 2024 to 0.075 in 2025. It is forecast to rebound a bit to 0.100 in 2026 and then to 0.108 mb/d in 2027. “Other” biofuels (e.g., sustainable aviation fuel) expanded from 0.023 mb/d in 2024 to 0.040 mb/d in 2025. They are projected to hold steady at 0.040 mb/d in 2026 and then increase in 2027 to 0.051 mb/d. [see Figure 13 and Table 4d in full report]
U.S. solar capacity 61,009 72,248 91,648 123,000 152,00 183,000 223,000
(megawatts)
U.S. wind capacity 132,629 141,275 147,600 152,000 159,00 169,000 179,000
(megawatts)
SUN DAY Campaign - editorial note: EIA’s latest STEO once again confirms the SUN DAY Campaign’s consistent forecast of the past 3+ years: utility-scale solar capacity should surpass that of wind at some point in 2026. (It now appears to have done so in late spring or early summer.) That does not include additional solar capacity provided by small-scale (e.g., rooftop) systems, which EIA says totaled 63.19-GW as of August 31, 2026 [see Table 6.1 in “Electric Power Monthly”].
(Quadrillion Btu)
Energy Source 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027
Liquid biofuels 2.331 2.433 2.659 2.802 2.565 2.710 2.921
Wood biomass 1.989 2.029 1.969 1.920 1.906 1.885 2.005
Waste biomass 0.430 0.412 0.394 0.387 0.373 0.371 0.368
Wind power 1.289 1.481 1.436 1.574 1.689 1.777 1.781
Solar 0.627 0.764 0.878 1.100 1.453 1.689 1.945
Hydropower 0.858 0.869 0.836 0.829 0.843 0.864 0.862
Geothermal 0.118 0.118 0.119 0.116 0.117 0.117 0.119
EIA - Nuclear Power: “We forecast the nuclear generation share [of electricity] averages 18% … in 2026 and 2027.”
Nuclear power declined from an 18.81% share of U.S. electricity generation in 2024 to 18.38% in 2025 and is projected to drop to 17.96% in 2026 but increase slightly to 18.05% in 2027. [see Figure 30 below]
EIA - Natural Gas: “We forecast the U.S. natural gas generation share [of electricity] to average close to 40% in 2026 and 2027.”
Natural gas’ share of electrical generation fell from 42.48% in 2024 to 39.93% in 2025. It is projected to increase slightly to 40.28% in 2026 and then drop back down to 39.45% in 2027. [see Figure 30 below]
EIA - Coal: “U.S. coal consumption falls by 7% to 419 million short tons in 2026 in the forecast, and by another 5% in 2027. Coal production decreases by just 2% this year, as rising exports partly offset the drop in consumption. Production falls by another 4% in 2027 as consumption decreases and exports remain flat.
“Electric power coal consumption, which accounts for approximately 90% of domestic coal consumption, has declined from last year in 8 of the 10 months so far in 2026. The decreases have been driven by significant increases in wind and solar capacity as well as a 9% decline in the average natural gas price in the electric power sector during the second and third quarters of this year. We expect coal consumption to decline an additional 5% in 2027, driven by a 19% decrease in natural gas prices for electric generating plants and further increases in wind and solar capacity.”
“We forecast the share of total U.S. generation from coal-fired power plants to decline from 17% in 2025 to 15% by 2027 as 13 GW of capacity is scheduled to retire by the end of 2027.”
Coal’s share of utility-scale electrical generation dropped from 28.40% in 2018 to 17.09% in 2025. It will decrease further to 15.48% in 2026 and fall again in 2027 to 14.53% - i.e., roughly half of the level it was at a decade ago. [see Figure 30 below]
EIA - Petroleum: “We forecast U.S. crude oil production will increase to 14.3 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2027, a 3% increase from a record of 13.9 million b/d in 2026.
“We now estimate that global liquid fuels consumption will fall by 2.0 million b/d in 2026. ... We anticipate that global oil demand will recover in 2027, increasing by 2.0 million b/d on average, as the gradual increase in oil flows and falling prices encourage increased demand.
“EIA forecasts that diesel will average $5.03 per gallon, up from $4.49 per gallon in the October forecast, and gasoline will average $3.73 per gallon, up from $3.56 per gallon. … EIA expects U.S. retail gasoline and diesel prices to fall in 2027. EIA raised both forecasts from October because it now expects global supplies of refined fuels to remain tight through the end of 2027.”
Electricity Generation - All Sectors [Figure 30]
Year Gas Coal Nuclear Hydro Wind Solar Other Total RE-%
2020 1.522 0.768 0.790 0.284 0.337 0.089 0.027 3.854 19.12%
2021 1.477 0.892 0.780 0.250 0.378 0.115 0.029 3.958 19.50%
2022 1.583 0.826 0.772 0.254 0.434 0.143 0.030 4.074 21.13%
2023 1.700 0.671 0.775 0.244 0.421 0.165 0.023 4.029 21.17%
2024 1.766 0.648 0.782 0.242 0.452 0.219 0.022 4.157 22.49%
2025 1.706 0.730 0.785 0.240 0.461 0.298 0.025 4.272 23.97%
2026 1.767 0.679 0.788 0.249 0.495 0.357 0.028 4.387 25.74%
2027 1.751 0.645 0.801 0.252 0.521 0.426 0.024 4.438 27.56%
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CO2 Emissions:
EIA - CO2 Emissions: “We forecast U.S. energy-related carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions to decrease by 1.5% in 2026 relative to 2025 and to remain relatively flat in 2027. In 2026, decreases in CO2 emissions primarily reflect expected declines in coal consumption and, to a lesser extent, decreases in consumption of various petroleum products, most notably motor gasoline and distillate fuel oil. Declines in coal-related emissions continue in 2027 but are offset by rising natural gas-related emissions from growth in natural gas consumption in the commercial and industrial sectors, as well as by small increases in petroleum-related emissions from higher distillate fuel oil consumption.”
Annual CO2 Emissions [Figure 40]
(million metric tons)
Energy Source 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027
Coal 876 1003 938 776 751 826 771 732
Petroleum 2044 2235 2251 2251 2241 2269 2248 2255
Natural Gas 1653 1656 1748 1764 1790 1813 1818 1862
Total Energy 4584 4906 4945 4799 4789 4916 4844 4856
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