Climate meltdown: Lessons from a summer of nuclear shutdowns

by Zia Weise

With help from Benjamin Storrow, Sara Schonhardt and Zack Colman in the U.S., Brian Dabbs in Singapore, Mike Blanchfield in Canada, Alexandre Léchenet and Nicolas Camut in France, and Charlie Cooper in the United Kingdom. CLIMATE MELTDOWN: Nuclear power is buzzing. Nations worldwide are pouring money into an atomic renaissance to confront rising temperatures and exploding electricity demand. But climate change showed this summer how those plans could be at risk. Nuclear plants across Europe were forced to halt or curtail generation in August as heat waves and drought plunged river levels to record lows, depriving reactors of cooling water. Bulgaria’s sole nuclear plant throttled supply. Romania blew up a rock to keep the water flowing but was eventually forced to shutter both of its reactors. Hungary narrowly avoided shutting down its only nuclear plant, which provides half the country’s electricity, but slashed production by three-quarters. In France, a record number of reactors had to halt or cut output. That prompted some governments and companies to question whether their multibillion-euro plans to build new plants should be adjusted to account for the rising threats of climate-related disasters. Hungarian Prime Minister Péter Magyar is reconsidering expansion plans, citing a cooling system that he said is unfit to deal with global warming. Romania’s energy ministry told POLITICO in a statement that the country isn’t backtracking on its nuclear ambitions, but that events this summer “reinforces the importance of ensuring that future projects are appropriately assessed against a broad range of climate, hydrological, environmental and energy-system conditions.” The impacts come as nuclear power's popularity is resurging. Wars, data centers and climate change are driving the rebound. A coalition of European Union countries wants to boost generation 50 percent by midcentury. In the U.S., the Trump administration aims to quadruple it over the same period, in part to account for the explosion of energy-intensive infrastructure for AI. Europe, the fastest-warming continent, is particularly exposed to climate risks because many of its reactors were built along inland rivers or depend on cooling ponds that are vulnerable to drought. “The temperature increases within Europe have been among the highest in the world,” said Brent Wanner, head of the power sector unit at the International Energy Agency. “So Europe would see some of these impacts first.” In Europe, South Asia and some areas of the U.S. (such as Arizona and Texas), the biggest threats are drought and rising water temperatures. In coastal North America and other parts of Asia, it's hurricanes and typhoons, which can damage power lines. And then there's jellyfish, which thrive in warming waters and clogged pumping systems at a French plant last month. It was the second year in a row it happened — on the same day. Despite this summer’s problems, leaders so far say the promise of nuclear power is too big to abandon. “Anyone who truly wants to protect the climate cannot be anti-nuclear,” Magyar said when he inspected Hungary’s vulnerable plant in late August. Read the full story here. HELLO AND WELCOME TO SURGE: I’m Zia Weise, senior climate reporter in POLITICO’s Brussels newsroom, bringing you the third edition of Surge. If you’re wondering how Europe’s nuclear reactors are doing now, most of them are back at full capacity after some much-needed rain in late August. The jellyfish, though, are still at it — they brought another French plant to its knees last week. Send tips and feedback, but please no jellyfish recipes, to zweise@politico.eu.

UNEP Executive Director Inger Andersen says the world is expected to surpass the Paris Agreement's 1.5-degree target. | Rafiq Maqbool/AP

SPEAKING OF ADAPTATION: A U.N. report out Wednesday underscores the grid-reliability threats of a warming world. The U.N. Environment Programme finally said the quiet part out loud in a report Wednesday: The world is going to miss its goal of limiting global temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius — and not only does that mean we'll need more power, the power will be harder to get. It warns that the new best-case scenario of peaking warming at 1.8 degrees Celsius risks overstraining power grids as the world faces sharply rising electricity demand from data centers, electric cars and a growing need for air conditioning. Rising temperatures could triple the amount of power needed for keeping people cool, going from 5,000 terawatt-hours in 2002 to as much as 18,000 TWh by 2050. And the aforementioned heat waves, drought and other climate extremes could strain supplies further. The report suggests scaling renewable power to 60-70 percent of global electricity generation by 2030 — up from around 32 percent in 2024. The cost of holding warming at 1.8 degrees is around $2.4 trillion annually. —Sara Schonhardt NOT WHAT YOU THINK IT MEANS: The good news for climate action: Renewable energy is booming. The bad news: so are fossil fuels. Bottom line: Adding clean tech to the globe’s energy systems won’t be enough to drastically curb planet-heating emissions as electricity demand soars, according to a new report from consulting firm McKinsey. It’s no longer a given that efficiency improvements and plummeting costs for renewables will offset the world’s energy appetite. McKinsey said that “demand came from sources that earlier outlooks did not fully anticipate," such as energy-hungry artificial intelligence and higher air conditioning usage in Asia. The paradox: While policymakers have focused on increasing electrification and clean energy deployment, the size of the energy pie is growing. That has made those contributions relatively smaller. “Against this backdrop, and despite resilient renewables growth in some regions, expectations that oil demand is set to peak before 2030 warrant scrutiny. In fact, the entire system is growing, building all fuel and power industries in parallel,” the report said. The findings are relevant for the United Nations climate talks in Turkey, known as COP31, in November. Officials will focus on a plan to increase global electrification to 35 percent of total energy consumption by 2035, though that pact will sit outside the official negotiations. The question is whether that target will help reduce emissions, given the rise of fossil fuels. The report identifies a clear gap for renewables. Low carbon technologies like solar and wind are attracting as much investment as fossil fuels for the first time. But money is lagging for storage, transmission and other infrastructure to support it. — Zack Colman

GREEN RUSH: The U.S. was the world’s largest recipient of foreign investments in renewable energy between 2020 and June of this year, amounting to nearly $200 billion, according to BloombergNEF. Foreign cash accounted for 49 percent of total dollars going to American renewables, with more than half of those international investments coming from the European Union. (Domestic and foreign investments amounted to $399 billion over that time — see the chart below.) Sara Schonhardt/POLITICO Much of the foreign money has gone toward solar projects, with investments growing as the price of panels fell. Solar was also buoyed by challenges related to permitting wind energy projects. Boomerang: Trump’s efforts to kill green subsidies have helped propel the investment rush as companies try to qualify for tax credits before they expire. Despite their disappearance, booming electricity demand could make America an attractive market for clean energy investors. “The fundamentals outside of the policy environment in the U.S. are extremely strong for renewable energy, especially when you look at load growth,” said Meredith Annex, head of clean power research at BloombergNEF. “I would imagine that investors will continue to look for wherever they're going to get their return, and if that's the U.S., it's the U.S.” —Sara Schonhardt   A message from AFPM: The United States has the strongest fuel refining, petrochemical manufacturing and midstream energy industries in the world, backed by the most talented and innovative workforce. We produce more gasoline, diesel, jet fuel and refined products than any other country — more than we consume, and enough to export to our allies. Our petrochemical industry benefits from an abundance of affordable U.S. natural gas liquids and is able to keep critical materials flowing to manufacturers here and thousands of miles away. Refineries, petrochemical facilities and energy pipelines are strategic national assets, essential to our economy, national security and modern life. American-made fuels power transportation, manufacturing and supply chains. Our petrochemicals are the building blocks for modern medicine, the homes we live in, the vehicles we drive and technologies shaping our future. Learn more about how We Make Progress. Our open tabs STEP GINGERLY: U.S. House Republicans are divided over how to address the backlash around data centers ahead of midterm elections, report Amelia Davidson and Kelsey Brugger — just as President Donald Trump is doubling down on his support for them. DATA CENTER SPEED BUMP: A judge blocked the approval of the first data center on U.S. public lands Tuesday, saying the Interior Department's Bureau of Land Management’s move to switch a solar farm to a data center failed to prove the projects would have similar environmental footprints. The order may be more of a speed bump than a roadblock, writes Alex Guillén. ANDY'S TEST: British Prime Minister Andy Burnham has promised to ease the cost of living for citizens facing what he says are the highest energy bills in Europe. But his options are limited amid an energy crunch stemming from the war in Iran. Charlie Cooper has the details. TAX BIG OIL?: The EU’s green transition chief is proposing a tax on fossil fuel profits, more joint debt and a bigger budget to manage the costs of coping with climate change, Zia Weise reports. Those ideas aren’t likely to be embraced by all countries in the 27-member bloc, but they come as a summer of extreme weather took a toll on many of its economies. That’s all for today. Thanks for reading! Did someone forward Surge to you? Sign up here if you're in the U.S. or here if you're in the EU.