Feb 1, 2025: AI on the Susquehanna River

Sep 29, 2024: The case against restarting Three Mile Island’s Unit-1


Radioactive: The Women of Three Mile Island

Did you catch "The Meltdown: Three Mile Island" on Netflix?
TMI remains a danger and TMIA is working hard to ensure the safety of our communities and the surrounding areas.
Learn more on this site and support our efforts. Join TMIA. To contact the TMIA office, call 717-233-7897.

    

AI game changer hits the grid
By Peter Behr | 08/13/2024 06:44 AM EDT

Northern Virginia is ground zero for digital data centers as Dominion Electric is squeezing all it can from its high-voltage lines.
 
 
LOUDOUN COUNTY, Virginia — High up along a string of transmission towers leading into northern Virginia’s immense cluster of digital data centers, line crews are doing one of the scariest jobs in the energy world.

Specially trained technicians have been unhooking live, uninsulated high-voltage lines that are crackling with 230,000 deadly volts of electricity. They’re replacing them with advanced cables that boost power delivery by 50 percent.

You wouldn’t do it this way unless you had to, says Matthew Gardner, vice president for transmission for Dominion Electric, the state’s largest utility, which owns and operates the lines.

Dominion says it has to.

Here, on the outskirts of Dulles International Airport, the largest collection of data centers in the United States is drawing power from Dominion’s lines. The eruption of generative artificial intelligence traffic and expectations for more are sending electricity use soaring.

Dominion chose the rare “hot line” replacement. It simply couldn’t shut down existing power lines that feed 24/7 demand for power from the growing hub of data centers. “It’s absolutely essential that these projects are completed to serve the future growth that’s coming our way,” Gardner said in an interview.

It took Dominion 115 years from its founding to reach its current level of power delivery. “The pace of growth is so rapid, driven by data centers, that we’re on pace to double our system load in the next 15 years,” Gardner said.

Here and at other data center clusters around the U.S., a grid industry struggling with a historic shift from fossil fuel generation to renewable energy is suddenly facing predictions of unprecedented demand because of this next phase of America’s digital economy, with no overall game plan to go on.

At the moment, the U.S. grid industry has slipped well off pace to meet President Joe Biden’s zero-carbon generation goals, required to lessen the risk of catastrophic climate events. The 2024 presidential race stands as a referendum on climate policy, given the scale of federal spending on clean energy under Biden. The AI-driven need for energy poses a new barrier to cutting carbon emissions if utilities rely primarily on gas- and coal-fired generation to meet the demand, according to recent studies.

Arshad Mansoor, chief executive of the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI), said utilities, grid planners, data center operators and their customers should be working together to develop clean energy. 

In a report to Secretary of Energy Jennifer Granholm’s energy advisory board, EPRI urged the nation to “transition to carbon-free electricity sources for data center operations and low carbon technologies for backup power.” 

Data center vs. climate change?

Meeting power needs without losing the fight against global warming has suddenly changed the planning and politics for the U.S grid.

To illustrate digital technology’s ravenous appetite for power, EPRI noted that simple searches today on a laptop browser consume about one-third of a watt of electricity. But advanced AI technology and high-powered computing are training software algorithms to create answers from vast data files, with skyrocketing increases in power needs.

A complex generative AI question over ChatGPT today would require 3 watts, 10 times the simple search amount, EPRI’s report concluded. A Google search with similar generative AI capability could require 9 watts, it added.

Depending on how fast AI expands, data center electricity demands could mushroom from about 4 percent of U.S. grid output to over 9 percent in just six years, EPRI said.

“Nobody has a good understanding of how generative AI will impact every aspect of the society,” Mansoor said in an interview. “And so anything we say now, most likely will be wrong in six months,” he added.

Energy & Environmental Economics (E3), a San Francisco energy research firm, gathered 13 analyses of how much electricity output may have to grow to keep up with data center expansion, under different assumptions.

The projections range from 20,000 megawatts to 100,000 MW of new capacity by 2030. There are plenty of unknowns, including just how “smart” generative AI becomes, how much efficiency can be built into AI chips and whether a strained electric grid can actually deliver the power data centers require.

“There’s still a ton of uncertainty,” particularly concerning the highest forecasts, said E3 senior partner Kushal Patel, a report co-author. “It’s probably not going to be more certain in the future,” he added.

If some utilities wind up overbuilding infrastructure to serve data centers, consumers could be stuck with higher costs, warned Moody’s Investors Service in a recent research report.

The 100,000 MW figure is roughly comparable to duplicating the generation capacity of the entire 94 U.S. nuclear reactors in six years.

While the impact is unmeasured, growth is coming because the potential profits from AI applications has created a sprint for the lead among hyperscale internet cloud infrastructure companies, led by Amazon Web Services, Microsoft, Google, Meta, Apple and TikTok, said Phill Lawson-Shanks, chief innovation officer at Aligned Data Centers, a Texas-based data center builder. 

“I hesitate to use that term, but there’s almost an arms race,” he said.

“They are saying, ‘OK, I have no idea how much, but I know I need power,’” EPRI’s Mansoor said. “’I need to build as much as I can.’”

The cost of new power

E3 pointed to the health care industry to describe the potential scale of artificial intelligence power demand.

There are roughly 32,000 radiologists in the U.S. with a midrange annual wage of $354,000, the firm estimated. If AI could learn to accurately analyze X-ray, ultrasound and MRI images, and replace just 10 percent of those radiologists, the revenue from that substitution could be more than $1 billion a year, according to E3 researchers.

That would pay for a lot of energy-hungry supercomputers.

With long lead times to connect wind and solar to the power grid and a split between the two political parties on federal transmission policy, the quickest source of new power for data centers is from gas-fired generation, E3 noted.

Officials in North Dakota see prospects for a booming data center business — based on discussions with major technology companies — as an opportunity to use some of the natural gas coming off the region’s prolific oil fields. North Dakota Department of Commerce Commissioner Josh Teigen says state officials are looking for ways to develop more gas-fired generation to power data centers and sell surplus electricity to the grid.

Grid operators and utilities are postponing some fossil fuel plant retirements citing threats to electricity reliability. “These rollbacks clash with the customers’ environmental goals and investments, and they threaten state and utility emission reduction targets,” E3 analysts said.

According to E3, delaying the retirement of a typical 1,000-MW coal power plant for a single year, for example, puts 3.8 million metric tons of CO2 into the atmosphere. That would offset the carbon-saving effects of 3,000 MW of utility-scale solar installations, E3 calculated.

What can be done?

As an immediate step, utilities need to make greater use of advanced transmission cables and “grid enhancing technologies” like dynamic line rating sensors that tell grid operators when more power can be moved without overheating cables, Gardner said.

EPRI analysts suggested data center operators could sync AI operations to times of the day or night when renewable power is most plentiful. Or large AI customers could help finance pilot installations of advanced 24/7 carbon-free power sources.

At its July 30 meeting, the advisory board to the secretary of Energy urged utilities, regulators, and data center users and builders to work together to speed up development of wind, solar and batteries. Longer-term technologies include small modular reactors (SMRs), long-term grid batteries, hydrogen hubs, fuel cells and underground storage of fossil plant carbon emissions.

Andy Bochman, senior grid strategist for the Idaho National Laboratory, emphasized small nuclear reactors.

“Coal and gas plants can then be replaced by similar-sized SMR installations on a one-to-one basis,” Bochman said. “This must be complemented by expanding wind and solar and storage on microgrids as quickly as possible.”

“As an industry, we will be forced to look at self-generation until the grid can catch up,” said Lawton-Shanks of Aligned Data Centers.

The hyperscale operators have huge financial resources, EPRI’s Mansoor said. They can partner with utilities to build pilot generation plants at data centers that could remove some of the financial risk of backing emerging technology like hydrogen or carbon capture.

“We can have 10 SMRs and 10 carbon capture and storage projects working by 2030,” Mansoor said.

There could be 10 carbon capture and storage installations at natural gas and coal plants, he continued.

Will the big data center users invest? “They’re talking,” Mansoor said.

From the desk of Ralph Nader

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From the desk of Ralph Nader

Garden of Atoms
Pollution, politics, and one family’s battle to end the nuclear poisoning of their community
 
Saturday August 17th 2024, 1PM ET


Join us for an in-person presentation with the Myers family of New York’s Allegany County, whose “Dump the Dump” campaign challenged nuclear waste pollution and made it all the way to the Supreme Court. Don’t miss your chance to hear their inspiring story and interact with prominent changemakers from our nation’s history!

Register online

16 locations identified to expand Nebraska's nuclear footprint, shortlist soon to be narrowed

By:  - August 9, 2024 4:09 pm


    Nebraska Public Power District’s Cooper Nuclear Station near Brownville, Nebraska. (Courtesy of NPPD)

    LINCOLN — The Nebraska Public Power District has identified 16 possible locations that could be candidates to expand Nebraska’s nuclear footprint and energy capabilities.
     
    The Nebraska Department of Economic Development along with NPPD announced Thursday the next phase of a feasibility study that will eventually narrow down its shortlist to two to four sites for emerging nuclear technology: small modular reactors, or SMRs. 
     
    Compared to NPPD’s Cooper Nuclear Station near Brownville, SMRs take up less physical space and have been championed as augmenting existing power sources.
     
    The 16 sites that will move on to the next phase of the feasibility study are located near the following cities: Beatrice, Brownville, Fremont, Grand Island, Hallam, Hastings, Holdrege, Kearney, Lexington, 
    Nebraska City, Norfolk, Plattsmouth, Rushville, Sutherland, Valentine and Wauneta.
     
    “We’re excited to help lay the groundwork for the potential future of this technology in Nebraska,” Department of Economic Development Director K.C. Belitz said in a statement. “Electrical generation is key to growing Nebraska’s economy and this study is the first step in creating a tremendous economic impact for any community where it’s located.”
     
    The Legislature first appropriated $1 million of federal funds through the American Rescue Plan Act for the study in 2022 seeking to identify appropriate places to expand nuclear power.
     
    The second study phase will be a more in-depth technical analysis, including criteria from the Nuclear Regulatory Commission and engagement with the local communities. Local support will be an important factor, according to a news release.
     
    State Sen. Tom Brewer of north-central Nebraska is chair of a select legislative committee tasked last year with examining the feasibility of constructing and operating SMRs in Nebraska. At an October hearing, lawmakers were told the work could begin without more legislation.
    NPPD is one of 21 utilities licensed to operate a nuclear plant, and there are 94 reactors licensed to operate in the United States, a news release states.
    “Nuclear energy has played a vital role in safely and reliably powering Nebraska for more than 50 years,” NPPD President and CEO Tom Kent said in a news release. “NPPD and many other utilities are closely following the progress of these next generation nuclear technologies.”
     
    Shortlist of Nebraska communities for small modular nuclear reactors
     
    Sixteen Nebraska communities are on a shortlist for expanding nuclear production in the Cornhusker State. An ongoing feasibility study will soon narrow the list to two to four sites, near the following communities.

    Map: Zach Wendling/Nebraska ExaminerSource: Nebraska Department of Education, Nebraska Public Power District Get the dataEmbed Created with Datawrapper
    FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
    MONDAY, AUGUST 12, 2024
    CONTACT: GENE STILP
    NO NUKES PENNSYLVANIA
    717-829-5600
     
     
    CONTACT: ERIC EPSTEIN
    THREE MILE ISLAND ALERT
    717-979-8767
     
     
    INITIAL CITIZEN PROTEST SCHEDULED TO OPPOSE THE
    REOPENING OF THREE MILE ISLAND UNIT ONE.
     
    MONDAY, AUGUST 12TH, 11 A.M.
    NORTH GATE OF THREE MILE ISLAND
    ROUTE 441 TWO MILES SOUTH OF MIDDLETOWN, PA.
     
    FIRST ARREST EXPECTED
     
    CONSTELLATION ENERGY IS RENAMED CONSTIPATION ENERGY
    BECAUSE OF ALL THE NUCLEAR WASTE ON THE ISLAND
     
    In referring to the demonstration planned for Monday, August 12th at 11 a.m., Gene Stilp said, “Like a vampire that will not die, the Three Mile Island nuclear plant is being prepared to once again rise from the grave and terrify the citizens of Pennsylvania. It is time to drive a final stake through this vampire before it has time to exist again.”
     
    Stilp continued,”All of the high level nuclear waste generated from Unit One is still there in filled “Used Fuel Pools” and subject to attack. Constellation Energy has so much nuclear waste there that we have renamed them CONSTIPATION ENERGY.”
     
    Three Mile Island has two units. Three Mile Island Unit Two brought on line in 1978, had the worst nuclear accident in American history forty-five years ago in 1979 and is dead for all time although the final cleanup is still not done.
     
    Three Mile Island Unit One which was brought on line in 1974, was closed in 2019 because it could not sell its power profitably. It was off-line for six years from 1979 until1985 because Pennsylvania Citizens fought to keep Unit One shut. The Nuclear Regulatory Commission and Pennsylvania State regulators did not listen to Central Pennsylvania citizens even though the surrounding counties voted overwhelmingly to keep it shut.
     
    Now after five years of being closed, the enablers, Constellation Energy, Pennsylvania politicians and the whole nuclear industry, want to reopen the beast in order to serve the needs of the “artificial intelligence” power demand not the citizens. Another prime example of technological tyranny.
     
    Apparently everything has been progressing in the dark, but after many months events are coming into the scrutiny of the light of day. And the vampire enablers do not like that. Constellation Energy has been reviewing the hardware at Unit One and assessing the viability of a plan to reopen it. The Pennsylvania governor and legislators are trying to provide money to make it happen. Federal funding is abundantly available as the effort progresses.
     
    The Nuclear Regulatory Commission and Pennsylvania State regulators will do everything in their power to make the reopening possible.
     
    Gene Stilp said, ”The only thing that stands in the way are the dedicated citizens of Central Pennsylvania. The anti-nuclear group Three Mile Island Alert has always been in the forefront. The Middletown Mothers have held steadfast for decades. No Nukes Pennsylvania is being revived. This first citizen demonstration has been scheduled for Monday,August 12 at 11 a.m at North Gate of Three Mile Island, the traditional location. The battle is on. This TMI vampire will not live again.”
     
    Power for the People. Demand Utility Justice Week of Action Aug 12-18

    Eric,
     

    This has already been a summer of climate-fueled chaos. We’ve been scorched by heat waves, watched millions of acres burned in wildfires, and seen communities devastated by multiple hurricanes - Some friends in Texas were hit with a second hurricane before their power came back on from the first storm. Even this week Tropical Storm Debby is drenching Florida towns still recovering from storms Idalia and Ian.

    As temperatures soar to dangerous highs, and severe storms and fires knock out our electricity, local utilities are raising rates to unaffordable, record-setting heights, and plowing the proceeds into new and bigger fossil fuel power plants, pipelines and more. Millions of vulnerable families are struggling to keep the power on  while utility companies profit off the climate crisis.1

     

    That’s not right. So next week, we're teaming up with national and international partners to make it clear: We’ve had enough of greedy for-profit, pro-pollution utilities. Will you join us?

    RSVP for the Week of Action today!

    Across the United States, for-profit utilities are making decisions based on grabbing power and profits, looking to maximize their earnings instead of speeding the shift Beyond Extreme Energy to safe, affordable, reliable and clean energy.

    In 2020, more than 1 in 4 U.S. households reported difficulty paying their energy bills or kept their homes at an unsafe temperature because of energy cost concerns.2 Meanwhile, shareholders make bigger profits than ever. 

    JOIN US! August 12 - 18th for a week of action to demand utility justice! 


    Thanks,

    Drew and the BXE crew


    References:
    1 - https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/article/2024/jul/16/low-income-households-face-power-shut-offs

    2 - https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/11/us/politics/utility-bills-clean-energy.html

     
    The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) is issuing a final environmental assessment (EA) and finding of no significant impact (FONSI) for a proposed amendment of NRC Possession Only License (POL) DPR-73 for the Three Mile Island Nuclear Station, Unit No. 2 (TMI-2), located in Londonderry Township, Dauphin County, Pennsylvania. The proposed...
     
    Nuclear Regulatory Commission
    1. [Docket No. 50-0320; NRC-2024-0099]
     
    AGENCY:
    Nuclear Regulatory Commission.
     
    ACTION:
    Notice; issuance.
     
    SUMMARY:
    The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) is issuing a final environmental assessment (EA) and finding of no significant impact (FONSI) for a proposed amendment of NRC Possession Only License (POL) DPR-73 for the Three Mile Island Nuclear Station, Unit No. 2 (TMI-2), located in Londonderry Township, Dauphin County, Pennsylvania. The proposed amendment
    SUBJECT:  Summary Of July 22, 2024, Public Meeting With Constellation Energy Generation, LLC Concerning Peach Bottom Units Nos. 2 And 3 Digital Upgrade Of The ECCS Compensated Level System (EPID L-2024-LRM-0009) 
     
    ADAMS Accession No. ML24206A178
    Using Web-based ADAMS, select “Advanced Search”
    Under “Property,” select “Accession Number”
    Under “Value,” enter the Accession Number
    Click Search
     
    (8/5/2024)
    PORTLAND, Ore., August 08, 2024--(BUSINESS WIRE)--NuScale Power Corporation (NYSE: SMR), the industry-leading provider of proprietary and innovative advanced small modular reactor nuclear technology, today announced results for the second quarter ended June 30, 2024.
    "As the only SMR certified by the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, NuScale is uniquely prepared to deliver in a customer environment intensely focused on near-term deployment of carbon free power," said John Hopkins, President and Chief Executive Officer of NuScale Power. "New data centers are opening almost daily – and each of them needs consistent, uninterrupted power. With the ability to locate our power modules onsite, NuScale can provide data centers and other industries the baseload decarbonized electricity they need without relying on external connections. We continue to advance conversations with potential customers around the world as we progress the manufacturing of our advanced SMR technology."
    Financial Update
    During the second quarter of 2024:
    • NuScale ended the second quarter with cash and equivalents of $136.0 million ($5.1 million of which is restricted), and no debt, compared to the first quarter of 2024 when the Company had cash and equivalents of $137.1 million ($5.1 million of which was restricted), and no debt.
    • For the quarter ended June 30, 2024, NuScale reported revenue of $1.0 million and a net loss of $74.4 million, while during the prior year period, the Company reported revenue of $5.8 million and a net loss of $29.7 million.
    • The second quarter of 2024 net loss included a non-cash expense of $36.7 million related to the fair value of warrants outstanding, while in the prior year period, the Company reported non-cash income of $7.2 million related to the fair value of our warrants.
    • In the second quarter of 2024, NuScale reported an operating loss of $41.9 million, compared to an operating loss of $56.1 million in the second quarter of 2023. The year-over-year reduction in operating expense of $14.2 million reflects the Company’s actions to reduce costs and operate more efficiently.
    Subsequent to the second quarter of 2024:
    • Subsequent to the second quarter of 2024, the Company executed a revenue generating agreement with RoPower in relation to the advancement of Doicesti project FEED Phase 2.
    • Over the next 12 months, we anticipate additional revenue from Fluor Corporation in respect of our continued contributions towards this project.

    Coming to your electric bill: Monthly charge to extend Diablo Canyon’s life

    Column: But do we really need the nuclear plant anymore? Critics bemoan "enormous financial gift" to PG&E, much from Southern Californians


    Aerial view of the Diablo Canyon Nuclear Power Plant which sits on the edge of the Pacific Ocean at Avila Beach in San Luis Obispo County, California on March 17, 2011. (MARK RALSTON/AFP via Getty Images)
    By TERI SFORZA | tsforza@scng.com | Orange County Register

    UPDATED: August 4, 2024 at 7:00 a.m.

    Folks who hate nuclear energy — and, judging by my inbox, there are quite a few of you — rejoiced when San Onofre stopped splitting atoms more than a decade ago. But Southern Californians may be surprised to learn that, unless things radically change, they’ll be paying for nuclear energy again soon.

    In something of an all-for-one, one-for-all move, customers of Southern California Edison and San Diego Gas & Electric are slated to kick in another $1.25 or so a month (Edison) and 87 cents a month (SDG&E) to extend the life of the aging Diablo Canyon Nuclear Power Plant, run by Pacific Gas & Electric (whose customers are slated to pay $2.07 a month).

    But that’s just for next year, and critics say those numbers grossly underestimate what folks would actually have to pay in future years. Worse is that, if PG&E collects more money than it needs for Diablo, it could keep it for projects in its area, while Southern Californians would get squat.

    The growth in new energy sources, in megawatts, in California. (California Public Utilities Commission)The growth in new energy sources, in megawatts, in California. (California Public Utilities Commission)

    All this may not be welcome news. Electric bills have essentially doubled over the past decade. There’s no permanent home for radioactive waste. But the official idea is that the Central Coast’s Diablo — California’s last operating commercial nuclear power plant — will smooth the transition from fossil fuel past to greenhouse gas-free future “without compromising system reliability,” legislators said when they made the plan two years ago.

    It’s not an inexpensive proposition. Keeping Diablo humming through 2030 — five years longer than its planned shut-down date — is an $8 billion-ish to $10 billion-ish to $12 billion-ish endeavor, depending on whose numbers you believe.

    The pressing question is: Do we really need Diablo? California has added an impressive array of new energy resources over recent years, and more will come online during the Diablo extension period.

    The California Public Utilities Commission is to make final decisions on who pays what by year’s end. Folks might want to chime in now, while they can.

    Hot, hot, hot

    Despite this summer’s dragon-breath heat, there have been no rolling blackouts due to energy shortages. No frantic requests to conserve power to keep others’ lights on.

    Turns out that California has added 18,500 megawatts of new resources between 2020 and 2024 — enough to power some 14 million homes — and another 11,000 megawatts are slated to come online by 2028, according to data from the California Public Utilities Commission.

    Most of these new resources are green — battery storage, solar or a combination of both.

    “We are glad to be doing our part in adding battery electric storage systems that support grid reliability, especially this summer with the repeated heat waves,” said Southern California Edison spokesman Jeff Monford. “The results speak for themselves.”

    This aerial picture taken on Dec. 6, 2023 show a solar farm in Imperial, California. (Photo by VALERIE MACON/AFP via Getty Images)
    This aerial picture taken on Dec. 6, 2023 show a solar farm in Imperial, California. (Photo by VALERIE MACON/AFP via Getty Images)

    It’s a very different scenario than in 2022, when California was fighting monstrous wildfires and pandemic-era supply chain snags. That’s when legislators passed, and the governor signed, Senate Bill 846, authorizing Diablo’s extension through 2030, along with a $1.4 billion loan from the state to PG&E “to facilitate the extension of the plant.”

    “Extreme heat leads to August 2020 rotating outages,” said a Senate analysis of the Diablo extension bill. “For the first time in 20 years, California experienced rotating electricity outages when the electric grid operator, the CAISO, forced electricity outages in order to balance electricity supply and demand on Friday, August 14 and Saturday, August 15, 2020. The outages occurred in the midst of an extreme heat wave affecting much of the western United States….

    “(T)he threat of the loss of power and the need for all-hands-on-deck emergency actions raised concerns about the state’s ability to prepare the electric grid for future extreme heat events,” it said. “In transitioning to a reliable, clean, and affordable resource mix, resource planning targets have not kept pace to ensure sufficient resources that can be relied upon to meet demand in the early evening hours. This made balancing demand and supply more challenging during the extreme heat wave.”

    Legislators acknowledged their distaste for nuclear and engineered an out.

    SB 846 “provides an off-ramp to the extension by allowing the CPUC to retire the plant early if new renewable energy and zero-carbon resources are built, interconnected, and determined to be adequate substitutes” for Diablo, the analysis said.

    Exit here?

    Air conditioner systems in the wall of a building. Air conditioning is based in removing heat from a confined space to achieve a more comfortable interior environment generic air conditioning units
    Air conditioner systems in the wall of a building.

    “The legislative proponents of SB 846 assured skeptical constituents that they built offramps into the process if the Diablo extension became too expensive or unnecessary,” said David Weisman, executive director of the Alliance For Nuclear Responsibility.

    “Well, it’s time for them to switch on their right turn blinkers and take the next exit ramp, before they drive ratepayers into a $10 billion pileup.”

    The extension is not reasonable, prudent or cost-effective, attorney John Geesman — a former California Energy Commission member — recently told the CPUC. Changed conditions in California’s electrical markets since 2022, along with a doubling in projected costs, have upended the economic logic of the extension.

    Weisman said it’s like a “taxation without representation” thing for Southern California customers of Edison and SDG&E. They’d be paying for bonuses PG&E gave its workers — for a period of time before the extension even starts. It looks like an enormous financial gift to PG&E, he said.

    A PG&E spokesperson has said the $10 billion-plus figures incorrectly include billions in unrelated costs. The company has pegged the cost at $8.3 billion, and “the financial benefits exceed the costs.”

    FILE - One of Pacific Gas & Electric's Diablo Canyon Power Plant's nuclear reactors in Avila Beach, Calif., is viewed Nov. 3, 2008. On Thursday, June 13, 2024, former state and federal officials joined environmentalists to spotlight soaring cost estimates for keeping the plant running beyond 2025. (AP Photo/Michael A. Mariant, File)
    One of Pacific Gas & Electric’s Diablo Canyon Power Plant’s nuclear reactors in Avila Beach. (AP Photo/Michael A. Mariant, File)

    Legislators — who could work to change all this — have been getting angry screeds from constituents. Some are starting to waver. There was quibbling over the loan to PG&E, if and when it would be repaid, whether taxpayers could be out hundreds of millions if the extension falls through.

    Gov. Gavin Newscom corralled them, however, and the $400 million loan to PG&E survived. But there’s a wellspring of anger out there.

    “The final budget deal with the Governor represents a total capitulation to PG&E and its shareholders,” Utility Reform Network attorney Matthew Freedman told the Sacramento Bee. “This $400 million will never be paid back to the general fund, forcing taxpayers to absorb the costs.”

    And precisely what those costs will be won’t be transparent.

    Utilities and critics alike asked the CPUC to break out Diablo extension charges as a separate line on electric bills, so folks can easily see what it’s costing them. The CPUC said no, that’s not necessary, and wants to fold it into “public purpose programs” charges, inscrutable to the Average Jo.

    Proceed with caution

    The folks who run the grid, the California Independent System Operator, celebrate the growth in clean energy.

    “(R)ecord-setting solar generation and battery output” that “marks the fifth consecutive year that solar has hit new peaks within the ISO footprint, while battery storage has become a major resource for grid reliability in just the last few years,” said a recent post.

    In this Aug. 18, 2017, file photo, electrical power flow and conditions are monitored at the California Independent System Operator grid control center in Folsom, Calif. (AP Photo/Rich Pedroncelli, File)
    Electrical power flow and conditions are monitored at the California Independent System Operator grid control center in Folsom. (AP File Photo/Rich Pedroncelli)

    But officials also urge caution.

    “It’s important to keep these records in perspective and not to overstate their significance,” wrote Amber Motley, CAISO’s director of short-term forecasting, in June. “There’s still a long way to go to reach the state’s much larger goal of having a 100% carbon-free grid by 2045, but this spring’s advances are significant steps in that direction.”

    Big enough steps to ditch Diablo? We’ll be reaching out to lawmakers in coming weeks to take their temperatures on all this.

    “The Newsom administration should congratulate themselves for having performed the remarkable task of accelerating the battery plus storage revolution that, in the summer of 2022, they foresaw as an impossibility, thus necessitating SB 846 and the perpetuation of Diablo,” Alliance For Nuclear Responsibility’s Weisman said. “They should declare victory, take a bow and return Diablo to its original retirement dates.”

    Nuclear cheerleading is fine — but what about the cost?

    True, it would deliver high-paying jobs, good tax base and emissions-free energy. But risks are rarely mentioned.

    By ALLEN BEST
    August 4, 2024

    Big Pivots

    It mystifies me, this perfervid belief in nuclear energy that I see in parts of Colorado. Just weeks ago, the commissioners in one Western Slope county added their support for nuclear. They noted that 65% of residents of northwest Colorado support nuclear. Conferences in Montrose and Pueblo devoted ample time to nuclear cheerleaders. They promise high-paying jobs and ample tax base.

    Well, heck, I believe it would be nice to have a Lamborghini when I replace my used Toyota Prius in a few years. But can I afford a $300,000 car?

    When extolling the technology, nuclear proponents rarely discuss cost, and then mostly in response to questions. Nuclear has a horrible track record. Two units in Georgia recently were completed at a cost of $35 billion, more than double original projections. Construction of two reactors in South Carolina were halted in 2017 after repeated cost overruns. Much hope was pinned on small modular reactors, but then Utah utilities in 2023 pulled the plug on NuScale.

    Bill Gates was in Wyoming recently to fling a shovel of dirt at Kemmerer. There, TerraPower hopes to deliver a nuclear reactor by 2030. Gates has committed $1 billion, plans to invest another $1 billion, but told a TV interview that he expects the project to ultimately cost $10 billion.

    Could Xcel Energy justify investing $10 billion in a reactor after it closes its two coal-burning units at Hayden or its two in Pueblo? How about Tri-State Generation and Transmission when the last coal unit closes at Craig in 2028?

    Chief executives of both Xcel and Tri-State say they can conceive of nuclear being part of Colorado’s energy future — but not until costs come down. Duane Highley, chief executive of Tri-State, Colorado’s second largest electrical generator, said recently he sees nuclear becoming competitive somewhere between 2035 and 2040.

    “We need to see a couple of these built and prove that they can be built cost-effectively, then everyone will be lined up. Everyone wants to be the first in line to be serial No. 2 — including us. But we’re a co-op. We can’t take that kind of financial risk with our members’ money,” he said.

    Robert Kenney, the chief executive of Xcel Colorado, told me he does not see nuclear as an option for at least several years. The federal government may need to backstop it, he said, limiting risk to individual utilities.

    Fair enough. Federal subsidies have helped wind and solar get on their feet. Renewables are starting to catch up to the subsidies for fossil fuels. Nuclear has also received help.

    Renewables will take us much of the way to 100% emission-free energy, but nobody thinks they will take us all the way. A study commissioned by the Colorado Energy Office last year sees natural gas plants delivering a small but vital component of the affordable, reliable and near-100% emissions-free electricity by 2040. We know the technology. It’s not cheap, with new plants costing roughly $500 million. But neither is it a $10 billion experiment.

    New ways to store excess renewable energy could help. Xcel is likely to be participating in a test of iron-air technology at Pueblo that could store energy for 100 hours. Both Colorado and Xcel are very interested in green hydrogen. Companies hope to produce new pumped-storage hydro power projects near Steamboat and Craig in the 2030s.

    Or consider geothermal. Conventional ground-source geothermal employs coils 8 to 10 feet below ground or relatively shallow wells to tap the constant approximately 55 degree heat for heating and cooling of buildings. Colorado Mesa University heats and cools 800,000 square feet with the technology. It reduces emissions and saves money. The only question in Colorado is how fast this technology will scale up to displace natural gas.

    Enhanced geothermal, the type used to produce electricity, is another matter. California gets 10.1% of its electricity from enhanced geothermal. It also has had volcanic eruptions as recently as 1917 (Lassen). Colorado’s most recent volcanic eruption (Dotsero) occurred 4,000 years ago.

    Colorado has no electricity from geothermal, although Gov. Jared Polis contends Colorado could get 4% to 8% of its electricity from geothermal by 2040. Drillers have shown great ingenuity at unlocking oil and gas deposits in Colorado and elsewhere. Can they instead tap the heat deep underground to affordably produce electricity when we need it, to complement wind and solar?

    Who knows whether enhanced geothermal will be part of Colorado’s emissions-free electricity, whether it can compete. Deep geothermal drilling may be too expensive but it won’t be a $10 billion gamble. Cheerleaders for nuclear need to acknowledge that risk. And then we can talk about the problem of waste disposal.

    Allen Best chronicles Colorado’s energy and water transitions at BigPivots.com.

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