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Feb 1, 2025: AI on the Susquehanna River

Sep 29, 2024: The case against restarting Three Mile Island’s Unit-1


Radioactive: The Women of Three Mile Island

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Nuclear Regulatory Commission - News Release
No: 25-036 June 18, 2025
CONTACT: Scott Burnell, 301-415-8200

NRC Advances Factory-Built Microreactor Policy

The Nuclear Regulatory Commission has decided on three policy matters to enable new ways of deploying microreactors. These very small reactors could be built, loaded with fuel, and tested at factories before being shipped to operating sites, and would generate about one percent or less of the power of a current large reactor.

The Commission’s first decision is that a factory-fabricated microreactor loaded with fuel may be excluded from being “in operation” if it has features to prevent a nuclear chain reaction. The second decision is that a microreactor with features to prevent a chain reaction may be loaded with fuel at a factory if it is done under an NRC license that allows possession of the fuel. The third decision is that the NRC staff may apply regulations for nonpower reactors to authorize testing of a microreactor at a factory before it is shipped to an operating site.

The Commission also directed the staff to continue other microreactor-related activities, such as engaging with Department of Energy/Defense efforts to build and operate microreactors on DOE/DOD sites or as part of critical national security infrastructure. This engagement aims to identify and implement licensing process efficiencies, consistent with the ADVANCE Act and relevant executive orders, to streamline the transition of microreactor technology to the commercial sector.

The NRC staff’s integrated microreactor activities plan has additional details on the agency’s regulatory activities.

 NEWS FROM BEYOND NUCLEAR

  For immediate release 

  Contact: Diane Curran, co-counsel for Beyond Nuclear, Harmon Curran, (202) 328-6918, dcurran@harmoncurran.com 

  Mindy Goldstein, co-counsel for Beyond Nuclear, Turner Environmental Law Clinic, (404) 727-3432, magolds@emory.edu 

Kevin Kamps, radioactive waste specialist, Beyond Nuclear, (240) 462-3216, kevin@beyondnuclear.org 

U.S. SUPREME COURT MAJORITY ALLOWS NRC LICENSE APPROVAL FOR ISP's HIGHLY RADIOACTIVE WASTE DUMP TO STAND IN WEST TX

 
BEYOND NUCLEAR WILL PURSUE PENDING APPEAL AGAINST HOLTEC DUMP IN NEW MEXICO AT U.S. COURT OF APPEALS FOR THE D.C. CIRCUIT 

WASHINGTON, D.C., JUNE 18, 2025--In a 6 to 3 decision regarding NRC v. Texas, the Supreme Court of the United States (SCOTUS) has ruled in favor of the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission's (NRC) approval of the construction and operating license for the Interim Storage Partners (ISP) consolidated interim storage facility (CISF) in Andrews Country, Texas, 0.3 miles from the New Mexico state line. ISP’s CISF targets Andrews County in west Texas for up to 40,000 metric tons of irradiated nuclear fuel, and highly radioactive Greater-Than-Class-C (GTCC) “low-level” radioactive waste, from commercial atomic reactors across the country. There is around 95,000 metric tons of highly radioactive waste stored at 94 operating, and 42 closed, atomic reactors located in dozens of states.

SCOTUS Justices Kavanaugh, Roberts, Sotomayor, Kagan, Barrett, and Jackson ruled in the majority; Justices Gorsuch, Alito, and Thomas dissented. Importantly, the majority did not reach the underlying issue before the Court – whether the NRC had authority to issue private storage licenses like ISP’s. Instead, it held that the State of Texas and Fasken Land and Minerals were not parties eligible for judicial review. Because of this ineligibility, the Court held that the ISP license could not be challenged.

The battle over ISP will continue outside the court. Texas Governor Greg Abbott signed into law a prohibition against ISP's CISF in September 2021, just days before NRC approved the construction and operating license. The bill had passed both houses of the Texas state legislature nearly unanimously, with only three dissenting votes in one chamber. The law would not allow needed state permits to be issued for the ISP CISF.

But, for now, attention will shift to the impact of SCOTUS’s ruling on an even larger CISF, targeted by Holtec International at southeastern New Mexico, just 40-some miles to the west from ISP's site. Holtec’s dump would store up to 173,600 metric tons of irradiated nuclear fuel and GTCC waste. 

“In NRC v. Texas, the Supreme Court failed to resolve a critical issue – whether a private company can store waste owned by the federal government,” said Mindy Goldstein, co-counsel for Beyond Nuclear. “But, it repeatedly noted that this issue can, and should, be raised first in an NRC licensing proceeding and then resolved in the D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals.” Beyond Nuclear has followed the correct procedural path mapped by the Court in its pending litigation challenging the Holtec Facility.

"We have raised the right issues in the right court,” said Diane Curran, co-counsel for Beyond Nuclear. “We look forward to resuming our litigation in the D.C. Circuit, where we will demonstrate that the law unequivocally prohibits Holtec’s private storage of federally owned spent fuel.”

New Mexico governor Michelle Lujan Grisham has also opposed Holtec’s CISF since taking office in 2019. This included signing into law a prohibition of the CISF lacking the state’s consent on March 17, 2023, just weeks before NRC approved Holtec’s license. NM's state law would also prevent the issuance of state permits needed for the dump's opening.

Kevin Kamps, Beyond Nuclear's radioactive waste specialist, said: "Even though SCOTUS has upheld the NRC license for ISP's dump, we still hope to stop it, and Holtec's dump as well, from going forward. After all, we were previously able to stop a very similar dump of Holtec's and the nuclear power industry's from going forward in Utah, on the Skull Valley Goshutes Indian Reservation, despite NRC having licensed it, and the federal courts having upheld that NRC license as well."

 

ADDITIONAL BACKGROUND:

This SCOTUS ruling in NRC v. Texas overturns earlier rulings, in 2023 and 2024, by a unanimous three-judge panel, and en banc (a majority of the full circuit’s 15 judges), made by the 5th Circuit U.S. Court of Appeals in New Orleans. Deciding in favor of the State of Texas, as well as Fasken Land and Minerals, LLC, and the Permian Basin Land and Royalty Owners, the 5th Circuit ruled that the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) lacked the legal authority to license construction and operation of ISP’s CISF. The 5th Circuit rulings invalidated NRC’s license, approved in September 2021, which came just days after the State of Texas enacted a law prohibiting state permits required for ISP’s dump to proceed.

ISP itself is located just 0.3 miles from the NM state line, near or even directly above the Ogallala Aquifer, North America’s largest. It provides vital drinking and irrigation water to millions across eight High Plains states, from Texas to South Dakota. ISP is located immediately adjacent to Waste Control Specialists, LLC, a national “low-level” radioactive waste dump also threatening to contaminate the Ogallala.

If constructed and operated, the ISP and Holtec CISFs would launch an unprecedented number — more than 10,000 — of shipments of highly radioactive waste on rails, roads, and/or waterways. As 75% of reactors and on-site stored radioactive wastes are east of the Mississippi River, and 90% are in the eastern half of the U.S., shipping distances and consequent risks of transport incidents or disasters would be exacerbated by opening CISFs in the Southwest’s Permian Basin.

In fact, the CISFs would automatically double such “Mobile Chornobyl,” “Floating Fukushima,” “Dirty Bomb on Wheels,” and “Mobile X-ray Machine That Can’t Be Turned Off” risks, as the wastes would have to be moved yet again, this time to a permanent geologic repository. The only such site under consideration for a repository since the “Screw Nevada Bill” of 1987, Yucca Mountain, on Western Shoshone land around 100 miles northwest of Las Vegas, was effectively cancelled by the Obama administration in 2010, after decades of resistance by the Western ShoshoneState of Nevada, and a thousand environmental groups nationwide.

Ironically enough, NRC, which is supposed to be the neutral, unbiased, objective judge of the Yucca Mountain repository licensing proceeding, approved both CISF licenses, with the assumption by ISP and Holtec that Yucca will one day be the permanent repository. But the NRC licensing proceeding for Yucca has not yet even been held.

A map prepared by the Western Interstate Energy Board, as part of its comments submitted to NRC regarding the ISP Draft Environmental Impact Statement, show the most likely rail routes from U.S. atomic reactors to the west Texas CISF. Maps provided by ISP in its 2016 License Application Environmental Report showed that nearly every mainline railway in the U.S. was under consideration for shipping highly radioactive wastes to the CISF; another, assuming Yucca Mountain, Nevada as the eventual permanent repository, revealed that many Texas and Oklahoma communities would be impacted “coming and going,” by wastes imported from the east, and then again as wastes were exported from the CISF to Yucca Mountain. The City of Fort Worth, Texas, on those routes, in Friend of the Court briefs, objected to such risk-taking, at both the Court of Appeals, as well as at SCOTUS.

Beyond Nuclear’s legal arguments against the ISP and Holtec CISFs focused on violations of the Nuclear Waste Policy Act of 1982, as Amended, as well as the Administrative Procedure Act. Beyond Nuclear has actively opposed these CISFs from the get-go, including a warning to NRC regarding the dumps’ illegality sent in October, 2016, as well as deep engagement in NRC’s environmental reviews and licensing proceedings beginning in 2017. After exhausting all administrative remedies, on behalf of its members and supporters living and working in close proximity to both proposed CISFs, Beyond Nuclear appealed to the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit, several years ago. Beyond Nuclear’s legal counsel submitted a Friend of the Court brief to SCOTUS earlier this year. Beyond Nuclear’s appeal of the D.C. Circuit Court’s adverse ruling in the Holtec case had been held in abeyance until this SCOTUS ruling; Beyond Nuclear's appeal to the D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals can now proceed.

Beyond Nuclear has worked closely with a national environmental coalition, opposing these CISFs for the past decade. Sierra Club chapters in Texas and New Mexico, were represented by attorney Wally Taylor of Cedar Rapids, Iowa. A grassroots environmental coalition, represented by attorney Terry Lodge of Toledo, Ohio, included: Don’t Waste Michigan; Citizens’ Environmental Coalition (of New York); Citizens for Alternatives to Chemical Contamination (of Michigan); Demand Nuclear Abolition (of New Mexico, previously called Nuclear Issues Study Group); Nuclear Energy Information Service (of Illinois); San Luis Obispo Mothers for Peace (of California), and Sustainable Energy and Economic Development (SEED) Coalition (of Texas). Sierra Club and Don’t Waste Michigan, et al., focused on the CISFs’ many violations of the National Environmental Policy Act. They appealed adverse decisions by NRC to the D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals. Don’t Waste Michigan, et al., also submitted a Friend of the Court brief to SCOTUS.

For more information about Beyond Nuclear’s opposition to CISFs, 
see our series of eight, two-sided fact sheets published in September, 2021, as well as a short educational video, featuring the Obama EPA's director of Environmental Justice (EJ), Mustafa Ali, and grassroots EJ voices opposed to the CISFs. Also see Beyond Nuclear’s related website posts (March 2022 to the present), as well as posts from 2016 to 2022 at our previous, archived website.

###
Beyond Nuclear is a 501(c)(3) nonprofit membership organization. Beyond Nuclear aims to educate and activate the public about the connections between nuclear power and nuclear weapons and the need to abolish both to safeguard our future. Beyond Nuclear advocates for an energy future that is sustainable, benign and democratic. The Beyond Nuclear team works with diverse partners and allies to provide the public, government officials, and the media with the critical information necessary to move humanity toward a world beyond nuclear. Beyond Nuclear: 7304 Carroll Avenue, #182, Takoma Park, MD 20912. Info@beyondnuclear.orgwww.beyondnuclear.org.
 

--

Kevin Kamps
Radioactive Waste Specialist
Beyond Nuclear
7304 Carroll Avenue, #182
Takoma Park, Maryland 20912

kevin@beyondnuclear.org
www.beyondnuclear.org

Beyond Nuclear aims to educate and activate the public about the connections between nuclear power and nuclear weapons and the need to abolish both to safeguard our future. Beyond Nuclear advocates for an energy future that is sustainable, benign and democratic.

 NEWS FROM BEYOND NUCLEAR

  For immediate release 

 Contact: Kevin Kamps, radioactive waste specialist, Beyond Nuclear, Kalamazoo, Michigan, (240) 462-3216, kevin@beyondnuclear.org
 Michael Keegan, co-chair, Don’t Waste Michigan, Monroe, Michigan, mkeeganj@comcast.net 
 Terry Lodge, environmental coalition co-counsel, tjlodge50@yahoo.com
(Reporters wishing to speak with Arnie Gundersen, the environmental coalition’s nuclear engineer/expert witness, please contact Kevin Kamps, who will connect you to him)

Environmental Coalition Legally Intervenes against BAND-AID Fixes at Palisades Atomic Reactor

Holtec’s Self-Inflicted Steam Generator Tube Degradation Risks Catastrophic Reactor Core Meltdown

COVERT TOWNSHIP, MICHIGAN and WASHINGTON, D.C., JUNE 17, 2025--By the June 16 deadline, a coalition of five environmental organizations filed a petition to intervene and request for hearing with the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) against Holtec’s unprecedented scheme to restart the permanently closed Palisades atomic reactor in Covert Twp., near South Haven, on the Lake Michigan shoreline. The focus of this legal intervention is Holtec’s proposal to implement “sleeving” on a very large number of severely degraded, exceedingly thin tubes in the twin steam generators, while plugging many others too degraded to sleeve. To compensate for the reduced flow through the steam generators, Holtec also proposes to unplug more than 600 tubes that were pre-emptively plugged 35 years ago, as a safety precaution against damaging vibrations long associated with Palisades’ steam generator design, even when they were brand new.

The coalition petition/request, with accompanying expert witness report, was filed as a non-public document, due to the potential for SUNSI (Sensitive, Unclassified, Nonsafeguards Information) content. Holtec and its steam generator tube repair contractor Framatome will review the filing before the release of the public version of the coalition filings. This process could take up to two weeks. The coalition will publicly release its filings as soon as possible.

The coalition’s expert witness, nuclear engineer Arnie Gundersen, with more than 50 years of relevant experience, said:

“For two years (2022-2024) Holtec knowingly allowed a toxic soup of chemicals to eat away at the steel inside the Palisades steam generators.  Then in August 2024, Holtec looked inside the steam generators and found gross steam generator tube failures.  Fifty times more tubes failed while Holtec was not running the plant than in the 34 prior years when Palisades was operating.”

Gundersen continued: “Now Holtec seeks the Nuclear Regulatory Commission's approval to restart the damaged steam generators, damage that Holtec created and damage that was avoidable if Holtec was an experienced nuclear plant operator.”
 
Gundersen concluded: “It’s not a question of IF the Palisades steam generators will fail.  They will.  It’s a question of how much radiation they will release when they fail. The NRC should do its job and force Holtec to replace the old steam generators with a modern design before Palisades is restarted.”

Holtec took over Palisades from Entergy on June 28, 2022. Instead of decommissioning it, as promised, Holtec instead applied to the U.S. Department of Energy a week later, requesting many billions of dollars in bailouts, in order to restart the permanently closed reactor, as well as to build two new reactors on the tiny, 432-acre Palisades site. Holtec began working with NRC in late 2022/early 2023 to cobble together an ad hoc, make it up as you go “regulatory pathway to restart” for Palisades, as no such NRC regulations exist for the unprecedented scheme.

NRC has described it as a "First of a Kind (FOAK) Effort to Restart a Shuttered Nuclear Plant." Holltec has touted it as a model to be emulated across the U.S. and around the world. Critics have dubbed it a "zombie reactor restart" risking a Chornobyl- or Fukushima-scale radioactive catastrophe, putting the Great Lakes at existential risk.

In late August, 2024, Holtec inspected Palisades’ steam generator tubes. In early September, 2024, Holtec communicated the results of its inspection to the NRC. NRC was so alarmed, it issued a rare Preliminary Notification of Occurrence. Some weeks later, NRC revealed more details on the vast extent of the steam generator tube degradation. On January 14, 2025, during a technical meeting with Holtec, watchdogged and audio recorded by environmentalists and concerned local residents, an NRC staffer revealed that Holtec had neglected safety-critical steam generator tube wet layup, to safeguard it against further degradation. This neglect by Holtec, which has never operated a reactor, went on for nearly two long years (June 28, 2022 to May, 2024). Holtec applied to NRC 60 days ago for a steam generator tube repair License Amendment Request, making June 16 the environmental coalition’s deadline to intervene.

Kevin Kamps, radioactive waste specialist at Beyond Nuclear, based in Kalamazoo, Michigan, 35 miles downwind of Palisades, said: “A cascading failure of enough steam generator tubes could lead to a full-scale reactor core meltdown. NRC’s own 1982 report has calculated that a reactor meltdown at Palisades would cause a thousand acute radiation poisoning deaths, 7,000 radiation injuries, and 10,000 latent cancer fatalities, as well as $52.6 billion in property damage. Adjusting for inflation alone to reflect today’s dollar figure values, that would surmount $168 billion in property damage. And the population has increased around Palisades in the past 43 years, meaning casualties would now be correspondingly worse, as more people live in harm’s way downwind, downstream, up the food chain, and down the generations.”

"Holtec and NRC have made us all non-consenting nuclear guinea pigs for their all too real world atomic reactor experiments on the Lake Michigan beach," Kamps concluded.

Palisades’ original owner/operator, Consumers Energy, admitted to the Michigan Public Service Commission in spring 2006 that the steam generators needed replacement. However, from 2007 to 2022, the new owner/operator, Entergy did not do so, because NRC did not require it. Holtec gave lip service to replacing the steam generators on July 5, 2022, at a cost of $510 million — the single largest line item on Holtec’s Palisades restart costs chart. But by spring, 2024, Holtec Palisades’ spokesman Nick Culp claimed the degraded steam generators were good to go for decades of operations to come. Holtec’s August, 2024 inspection showed that was dangerously false.

The intervening environmental coalition includes Beyond Nuclear, Don’t Waste Michigan, Michigan Safe Energy Future, Nuclear Energy Information Service of Chicago, and Three Mile Island Alert of Pennsylvania. Attorneys Terry Lodge in Toledo, Ohio, and Wally Taylor in Cedar Rapids, Iowa, serve as the coalition’s legal counsel. Nuclear engineer Arnie Gundersen, and climate scientist Dr. Mark Z. Jacobson of Stanford University, serve as the coalition’s expert witnesses. This intervention follows previous coalition interventions, dating back to December, 2023, against four prior License Amendment Requests, a License Transfer Request, and a wide-ranging Exemption Request, Holtec has submitted to NRC in order to restart Palisades. The coalition has also recently objected to NRC’s related Environmental Assessment/Finding of No Significant Impact with numerous contentions. Once the environmental coalition has exhausted all administrative remedies at NRC, it will appeal to the federal courts.

"All the king's horses, and all the king's men, will court disaster if they try to run Palisades again.  Approval of Palisades’ restart is tantamount to criminal negligence,” said Alice Hirt of Holland, Michigan, an intervenor on behalf of Don't Waste Michigan, a statewide, grassroots nuclear watch-dog group for the past four decades.

Beyond Nuclear has posted a one-stop-shop at its website, of every single one of its web posts since April, 2022 regarding Palisades’ reactor restart, as well as “Small Modular Reactor” new builds, both at Palisades, and at its sibling atomic reactor site, Big Rock Point near Charlevoix, Michigan, also on the Lake Michigan shore, around 250 miles north of Palisades. April, 2022 was when Holtec CEO Krishna Singh first floated “Small Modular Reactor” construction and operation at Palisades, and Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer first floated restarting the closed, 60-year old reactor (Palisades was designed in the mid-1960s; ground was broken in 1967; very troubled operations began in 1971, and continued until May 20, 2022, when Entergy closed Palisades, supposedly for good).

Trump fires former Biden chair from Nuclear Regulatory Commission - POLITICO

President Donald Trump has terminated Commissioner Christopher Hanson from the Nuclear Regulatory Commission, the latest move by the White House to assert control over independent agencies. 
 
Hanson said in a statement Monday that he was removed from the position Friday “without cause” and “contrary to existing law and longstanding precedent regarding removal of independent agency appointees.”

https://www.sltrib.com/news/environment/2025/06/12/utah-nuclear-energy-state/
 

Utah wants to process uranium on the Wasatch Front for nuclear energy. Here’s where. 

State officials said the potential move “positions Utah as a national energy hub.”

 
HARRISBURG, Pa. (AP) — Amazon said Monday that it will spend $20 billion on two data center complexes in Pennsylvania, including one it is building alongside a nuclear power plant that has drawn federal scrutiny over an arrangement to essentially plug right into the power plant.

cites "high costs and long timelines" for building new reactors (and gas-fired plants)

https://www.politico.com/news/2025/06/10/energy-titan-to-republicans-dont-take-renewables-off-the-table-00396467

SUN DAY CAMPAIGN
(founded 1992 
8606 Greenwood Avenue, Suite #2; Takoma Park, MD 20912-6656    
301-588-4741;  sun-day-campaign@hotmail.com    
 
 
HIGHLIGHTS FROM EIA'S LATEST 
"SHORT-TERM ENERGY OUTLOOK" 
(released June 10, 2025) 
 

 

Notable Quote: “Carbon intensity falls modestly in both 2025 and 2026 as fuels with higher carbon content, such as coal, are used less relative to lower carbon fuels, such as renewable sources.”
 
 
EIA - Electricity/General: “We forecast that total U.S. electricity generation this summer will increase by 1%, compared with the summer of 2024, as a result of growing power demand from the commercial and industrial sectors. … We forecast that U.S. commercial electricity sector consumption will grow by 3% in 2025 and by 5% in 2026. In the previous STEO, we expected commercial electricity demand would grow by an annual average of 2% through 2026.”
 
EIA - Solar: “We expect U.S. solar generation this summer will grow by 33% (30 BKWh). … The Midwest is forecast to see an increase in solar generation this summer along with less natural gas generation. … Forecast natural gas generation in Texas falls this year in response to the growth in generation from new solar facilities and a smaller increase in wind generation.”
 
EIA - Hydropower: “Improving water supply in the western states leads to a forecast 6% increase (5 BkWh) in U.S. hydroelectric generation. … Natural gas generation in the Northwest drops in response to higher hydropower output because this area of the country has significant hydro resources.”
 
EIA - Biofuels: “We forecast a substantial drop in biodiesel and renewable diesel net imports in 2025 due to a change in the federal tax credit. … With imported biodiesel no longer receiving a federal tax credit, we expect a decrease in biodiesel imports and, consequently, net imports.”
 
EIA - Battery Storage: Between 2020 and 2024, battery storage capacity increased from 2-GW to 27-GW. In 2025, it is projected to expand to 46-GW and to reach 65-GW in 2026.
 
In 2025, wind is forecast to provide about 11.21% of U.S. electricity generation, followed by solar (6.84%), and hydro (5.95%). [see Figure 30 below] (Ed. Note: this is interpreted to mean utility-scale generation and not include distributed solar)
 
 
                                     2021          2022            2023            2024            2025            2026
U.S. solar capacity     61,009       72,248         91,648        123,000        150,000       183,000
(megawatts)
 
U.S. wind capacity     132,629     141,275       147,600      152,000        159,000       168,000
(megawatts)
 
SUN DAY Campaign - editorial note: EIA’s STEO confirms the SUN DAY Campaign’s consistent forecast of the past three years: utility-scale solar capacity should approach that of wind by the end of 2025 and then surpass it in 2026. That does not include additional solar capacity provided by small-scale (e.g., rooftop) systems, which may increase total solar capacity by about a third.  
 
 
                                                U.S. Renewable Energy Supply [Figure 35]
(Quadrillion Btu)                   
Energy Source             2021                2022                2023                2024                2025                2026
Liquid biofuels           2.331               2.433               2.659               2.799               2.672               2.768
Wood biomass            1.989               2.029               1.863               1.811               1.906               1.962
Waste biomass            0.430               0.412               0.394               0.379               0.377               0.377
Wind power                1.289               1.481               1.436               1.546               1.619               1.728
Solar                           0.627               0.764               0.878               1.098               1.384               1.632
Hydropower                0.858               0.869               0.836               0.826               0.865               0.923
Geothermal                 0.118               0.118               0.119               0.117               0.117               0.117
 
 
EIA - Nuclear Power: Nuclear power is projected to decline from an 18.83% share of U.S. electricity generation in 2024 to 18.53% in 2025 and drop further to 18.47% in 2026
 
EIA - Natural Gas: “We expect that generation from U.S. natural gas-fired power plants between June and September 2025 will be 3% lower (23 BkWh) than the summer of 2024 because of higher natural gas prices and the continuing increase in new solar generating capacity. … We forecast that natural gas prices will be above last year’s levels for the remainder of 2025 and 2026.”
 
“Despite similar temperatures compared with last year, we expect the power sector will consume 3% less natural gas this summer than it did last summer. The drop in natural gas-fired generation largely reflects our expectation that natural gas prices will be higher this summer compared with last year. … The increasing availability of electricity generation from renewable sources also constrains growth in natural gas consumption beyond last year’s levels.”
 
EIA - Petroleum: “Domestic crude oil production reached an all-time high of 13.5 million barrels per day in the second quarter of 2025. EIA expects U.S. crude oil production to decline from that high through the end of 2026 as oil producers respond to lower prices … and declining rig count. …  EIA expects U.S. crude oil production to average about 13.4 million barrels per day this year and just below that amount in 2026.”
 
EIA - Coal: “We expect coal production to remain flat at 512 million short tons (MMst) in 2025 while coal consumption increases 4% to 428 MMst. … With rising consumption and flat production, we forecast that coal stocks in the electric power sector will fall to 113 MMst in 2025.”
 
*Coal’s share of utility-scale electrical generation will drop from 28.4% in 2018 to 16.24% in 2025 and decrease further to 14.90% in 2026. [see Figure 30 below]
 
Electricity Generation - All Sectors [Figure 30]
(billion kilowatt-hours)
 
Year    Gas       Coal   Nuclear   Hydro   Wind     Solar    Other     Total       RE-%                                                                                    
2020    1.522    0.768   0.790     0.284     0.337    0.089   0.027      3.854     19.12%
2021    1.477    0.892   0.780     0.250     0.378    0.115   0.029      3.958     19.50%
2022    1.583    0.826   0.772     0.254     0.434    0.143   0.030      4.074     21.13%
2023    1.700    0.671   0.775     0.244     0.421    0.165   0.023      4.029     21.17%
2024    1.759    0.648   0.782     0.241     0.453    0.217   0.022      4.151     22.48%
2025    1.698    0.688    0.785     0.252     0.475    0.290   0.024      4.237     24.57%
2026    1.720   0.646    0.801     0.269     0.506    0.350   0.022      4.337     26.45%           
 
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
 
CO2 Emissions:  
 
EIA - CO2 Emissions: “We forecast U.S. energy-related carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions to increase by around 1.2% in 2025, followed by a decrease of around 1.3% in 2026. Natural gas and petroleum products emissions increase by 1% in 2025 while coal emissions increase by 3%. Decreases in 2026 are associated with less consumption of all fossil fuels.”
 
Annual CO2 Emissions [Figure 40]
(million metric tons)
 
Energy Source           2020    2021    2022    2023    2024    2025    2026
Coal                             876      1003    939      777      751      776      736
Petroleum                    2044    2235    2250    2250    2231    2250    2233
Natural Gas                 1653    1656    1744    1760    1787    1799    1793
Total Energy                4584    4906    4940    4795    4777    4832    4769

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